Blog
Notes from the proof layer.
Long-form technical writing on Solana prediction market design, zkTLS proof verification, AI authoring pipelines, and honest competitor comparisons.
Curators are the adversarial layer AI markets need
Letting AI generate markets without human curation is a category error. Here is why the curator console is not a temporary scaffold — it is permanent infrastructure.
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Designing settlement logic for Solana prediction markets
The MarketFactory and MarketSettlement programs are the smallest possible programs that do their job. Here is what's in them and why.
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Inside the Scout-Draft-Validator pipeline
How Mentat's DSPy agent chain turns a one-line idea into a structured market specification — and what we learned tuning it.
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Mentat vs Azuro: liquidity primitives vs full-stack market protocols
Azuro is a liquidity layer that powers on-chain bookmakers. Mentat is a vertically integrated prediction market protocol with cryptographic settlement. They occupy adjacent slots in the stack, not the same one.
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Where prediction markets are in 2026
An honest snapshot of the prediction market industry after the 2024 cycle, Kalshi's CFTC win, and the slow arrival of cryptographic settlement primitives.
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Mentat vs Polymarket: cryptographic settlement vs corporate dispute desks
Polymarket has the deepest USD liquidity in prediction markets and a centralized arbiter when settlement gets contested. Mentat replaces both the oracle and the desk.
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Why prediction markets need zkTLS, not oracles
Oracle networks were a 2017 answer to a problem zkTLS proofs solve more directly in 2026. Here's the architectural argument for cryptographic settlement.
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